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☆ After a miserable October, the setup for stocks in November is looking better
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a miserable October, the setup for November is looking better. Barring a huge rally Tuesday, October will be the third-consecutive down month for the S & P 500 — that's unusual. 1 month for the S & P 500. It's just that stocks have sold off during earnings season because of the cautious outlook being projected on many earnings calls. The chances the S & P 500 would be down four months in a row is very small.

Persons: —, That's, Nicholas Colas, Colas, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, It's, hasn't, Jonathan Krinsky Locations: DataTrek, Israel, BTIG

☆ Banks in Japan are primed to do well going forward. What's driving them and how to play the trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

One place in the world stands as a beacon for investors in bank stocks: Japan. Japanese banks have outperformed in a year when U.S. banks have come under pressure both from rapidly rising interest rates and the regional banking crisis last spring. "We've been bullish on Japanese banks for a long time," said Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro. Part of what's driving the bull case for Japanese banks is the country's yield curve. While the U.S. and other developed economies contend with an inverted yield curve that's weighing on financial profit margins, Japan continues to have a positive yield curve.

Persons: We've, Chen Zhao, Zhao, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Japan's, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Regional Banking, Treasury, Japan Post Bank, Chiba Bank, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, Resona Holdings Locations: Japan, U.S, EWJ

☆ Higher stocks and rates rising this fast? Why history shows this is usually untenable
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A higher-for-longer interest rate environment could mean a "stalemate" for equities after their long upward march in 2023. However, history indicates that's unlikely to continue, according to Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro. He expects stocks will trade sideways for some time as investors weigh competing narratives around a robust economy with the pressures of higher bond yields. Of course, stocks bounced back the following year when the Federal Reserve began to cut rates. … But at the same time, you have rising borrowing costs, rising discount factors that actually tamp down asset values."

Persons: Stocks, Chen Zhao, Zhao, Komal, Kumar, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Federal Reserve, Kumar Global

☆ JPMorgan's top strategist says buy more gold, stay underweight stocks because of high rates, geopolitics
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

JPMorgan's top strategist is telling investors to buy more gold and remain underweight stocks. All three major averages remain higher this month, shrugging off higher yields and the breakout of the Israel-Hamas conflict. "Our outlook is likely to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain deeply restrictive, valuations expensive, and the overhang of geopolitical risks persists," Kolanovic wrote. In fact, the strategist expects the upward march in equities is 'unsustainable' in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Equities are up YTD mostly on multiple expansion while real rates and cost of capital are moving deeper into restric-tive territory," Kolanovic wrote.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Locations: Israel

☆ S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2024 are overly optimistic, JPMorgan's quant guru says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is poised to disappoint investors over the coming months and into next year because S&P 500 earnings growth estimates are too optimistic, according to JPMorgan's quant guru Marko Kolanovic. Wall Street consensus expects S&P 500 earnings per share to deliver 4% year-over-year growth in the third-quarter, according to the note. Kolanovic doesn't expect much to change in 2024, arguing that Wall Street analysts are still too optimistic about the potential for earnings growth. Consensus estimates suggests that the S&P 500 will grow its earnings per share by 12% next year. Kolanovic is sticking by his year-end S&P 500 price target of 4,200, pointing to potential downside of 4% from current levels.

Persons: JPMorgan's, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, — Organizations: Service, PMI, Federal Reserve

☆ Beware of these expensive stocks that analysts don't like
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

For context, the longer-term P/E ratio for the past 12 months of the S & P 500 is about 21 times trailing earnings. That compares to a five-year average P/E ratio of 19.87. The life insurer's 12-month trailing P/E ratio came in at 31.99, compared to its five-year average P/E ratio of 13.62. For context, the longer-term P/E ratio for the past 12 months of the S&P 500 is about 21 times trailing earnings. The life insurer's 12-month trailing P/E ratio came in at 31.99, compared to its five-year average P/E ratio of 13.62.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, David Vogt, Tyson Foods, Jefferies, Henry Schein, Michael Bloom, Darla Mercado, Angela Weiss, HSIC Henry Schein, MOH Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, IBM, UBS, Premier U.S, Tyson, Prudential Financial, Jefferies, Prudential, CNBC, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Molina Healthcare, Pinnacle West, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty, Business Machines Corp, Healthcare, Progressive Corp, Pinnacle West Capital Corp, TSN Tyson Foods, Business Machines Corp IBM, Target Premier U.S, Tyson Foods Inc TSN, Prudential Financial Inc

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The September jobs report is key
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Bracing for the jobs reportU.S. stocks dipped slightly Thursday as investors braced for the September job report coming out today. JPMorgan Chase's Marko Kolanovic thinks the S&P 500 might be slammed by a 20% sell-off if high interest rates persist. In other words, the gap between cheap and expensive stocks is larger than usual — which gives value investors a "tremendous opportunity."

Persons: Hong, Tencent, JPMorgan Chase's Marko Kolanovic, I'm, Bill Nygren, Nygren Organizations: CNBC, Treasury, Administration, European Union Chamber of Commerce Locations: Asia, Pacific, China

☆ JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic braces for 20% market plunge, delivers recession warning
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is bracing for a 20% sell-off to hit the S&P 500. According to the Institutional Investor hall-of-famer, high interest rates are creating a breaking point for stocks — and choosing cash at a 5.5% return in money market and short-term Treasurys is a key protection strategy right now. "I'm not sure how we're going to avoid it [recession] if we stay at this level of interest rates," the firm's chief market strategist and global research co-head told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Thursday. He indicates a near-term bounce is still possible because a lot hinges on economic reports over the next few months. It could be 20% downside."

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, I'm, CNBC's, Kolanovic Organizations: Institutional, famer

☆ JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic on recession watch, braces for 20% plunge in stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic on recession watch, braces for 20% plunge in stocksMarko Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chief Market Strategist and Co-Head of Global Research, joins 'Fast Money' to talk his recession prediction, Where the Federal Reserve stands with interest rates, mega-cap performance compared to mid-sized stocks and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Global Research, Federal

☆ The one thing in markets everyone should be watching
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The 10-Year US Treasury yield is arguably the most important thing to watch right now for investors. The 10-Year yield has soared to levels not seen since 2007, and that's having a big impact on stock prices. Here's what you need to know about what bond yields are doing to markets and the economy. Rising bond yields are also thrashing the bond market, as bond prices fall when yields rise. AdvertisementAdvertisementHigher interest rates also means higher credit card rates, leading to a rise in delinquencies in recent months.

Persons: —, It's, Ray Dalio, Bill Ackman, Bill Gross, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Treasury, Service, Treasury Bond ETF, Fed, Pershing, CNBC Locations: delinquencies

☆ Here's where Wall Street strategists see the stock market headed next after a brutal September
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks are coming off a brutal two-month stretch, and Wall Street is divided on what comes next. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is coming off back-to-back rocky months, and Wall Street is split on what could be coming next for investors. And Jeff Gundlach, the billionaire founder of DoubleLine Capital, said Tuesday that Treasury yields suggest it's time to start worrying about a severe downturn.

Persons: Stocks, Fundstrat, —, Quincy Krosby, Jay Woods, Woods, jitters, Kevin McCarthy, Gene Goldman, Goldman, Tom Lee, Lee, Marko Kolanovic, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Freedom Capital, Treasury, Cetera Investment Management, CNBC, DoubleLine

☆ Stock market carnage isn't over yet as soaring bond yields send investors into 'extreme fear' mode
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market isn't going to recover from its recent rout soon as three headwinds remain, according to JPMorgan. The bank highlighted that valuations are still too high, and interest rates are too restrictive. Investors have entered "extreme fear" mode as interest rates surge to a new cycle-high. "Our cautious outlook will likely remain in place as long as interest rates remain deeply restrictive, valuations expensive, and the overhang of geopolitical risks persists," JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said. The CNN Fear & Greed Index has entered "extreme fear" territory over the past week as investors fret about high interest rates.

Persons: —, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Service, CNN

☆ What are zero-day options? Here's how they're taking over a key corner of the stock market and why they could pose a big risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It's been one year since the CBOE launched zero-day options contracts and they're starting to take over the stock market. Zero-day options expire the same day they are issued and they now make up 50% of S&P 500 options activity. A new ETF has launched utilizing the options contracts, and with enough scale they could jolt the stock market in a big way. AdvertisementAdvertisementThere's a new options trading product that is taking over Wall Street, and it could ultimately pose a big risk for the stock market as it gains in scale. Defiance recently launched two ETFs that write puts via zero-day options on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Persons: It's, —, CBOE, JPMorgan, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Nasdaq Locations: YOLO

☆ JPMorgan’s top stock guru stays bearish on market, sees headwinds for any risk asset
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"This reasoning is based on market valuations (fundamentals), investor positioning, and various macro and geopolitical considerations." Higher-for-longer interest rates from the Federal Reserve have stoked investor worry on Wall Street. Kolanovic is JPMorgan's chief global market strategist who gained notoriety for correctly calling the post-pandemic rebound in stocks, something very few on Wall Street anticipated. In the near term, the strategist believes stocks could fall further until some of these headwinds subside. Most Wall Street strategists expect the S & P 500 to rebound above 4,300 before the year is out, according to the exclusive CNBC PRO strategist survey .

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, CNBC PRO

☆ 'We are becoming more convinced that the cracks are emerging': JPMorgan warns a host of recession risks are starting to pile up — and shares 2 trades to keep your portfolio safe
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Another is the still-inverted Treasury yield curve, meaning yields on shorter-duration government bonds are higher than those with longer durations. Inversions of the 3-month and 10-year yields have preceded every recession since the 1960s without producing a false signal. The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) offer exposure to energy stocks. The Consumer Price Index, a main measure of inflation, rose to 3.7% year-over-year in August compared to 3.2% in July. Investors can gain exposure to short-term government bonds through TreasuryDirect, their brokerage, or through ETFs like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH).

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Michael Feroli, Cash Organizations: for Supply Management, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal, Energy, Vanguard Energy Locations: China, TreasuryDirect

☆ The risk of a crisis over the next 6 to 12 months is rising as high rates bite and the stock market's AI rally fades, JPMorgan's quant chief says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's a lot that could go wrong in the stock market that investors are not fully appreciating. That's according to JPMorgan's quant chief, Marko Kolanovic, who is worried about high interest rates. "We think there is now a higher likelihood of a crisis over the next six to 12 months," he said. For Kolanovic to turn more bullish on the stock market, he needs to see two things — and they have nothing to do with the promise of AI. Instead, he wants to see interest rates fall around the world, as well as a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in Russia and China.

Persons: JPMorgan's, Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russia, China

☆ US households are on the brink with excess savings likely to be depleted by month-end, San Francisco Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Savings built up by American households during the pandemic are all but gone, the San Francisco Fed says. In 2021, Americans had amassed a record $2.1 trillion in excess savings, spurred by government stimulus checks and a drop in in-person spending. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Our updated estimates suggest that households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings by June. There is considerable uncertainty in the outlook, but we estimate that these excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023," San Francisco Fed analysts said in a recent blog. As of July 2023, the US personal savings rate stood at 3.5% – below pre-pandemic averages.

Persons: San Francisco Fed, –, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: San Francisco, Service, San Francisco Fed, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ JPMorgan says the biggest risk of de-dollarization isn't a rival currency — it's that the US could lose a key tool it's used to fight past economic crises
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The biggest risk of de-dollarization is that the US could lose a key tool it's used to fight past crises, JPMorgan said. De-dollarization risks mostly relate to inflation and debt burdens, strategists said. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Instead, the key de-dollarization risk that Western economies face is mostly related to inflation and their debt burdens, they explained. Bu while JPMorgan expects "marginal de-dollarization," to take place, the pace is not expected to be rapid.

Persons: —, Marko Kolanovic, dollarization Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, West, AA, AAA Locations: Western, Wall, Silicon, East, Ukraine

☆ The 2023 stock market rally is over as the Fed isn't easing anytime soon and a hard landing of the economy is inevitable, JPMorgan's chief stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rally in the S&P 500 is capped through the rest of the year, JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos said. That's because there are a litany of negative factors heading into 2024 that will weigh on equities. The strength of the US economy has only postponed a coming recession, not averted one, he added. Stocks could tumble 15% even in the event of a mild downturn, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic predicted in a recent note. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are now pricing in a 42% chance the Fed will raise rates another 25 basis-points in November.

Persons: JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos, Dubravko Lakos, Lakos, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, CNBC, Investors, Bank of America, New, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The AI boom won't be enough to avoid a hard landing for the economy, JPMorgan strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The excitement around artificial intelligence has helped the stock market soar in 2023, but the growth won't be enough to keep the U.S. economy out of a recession, according to a top JPMorgan strategist. "In terms of AI driving massive productivity gains for the broader economy, yes, but like 3 years from now, 4 years from now. Predictions of a recession and a struggling stock market were more common on Wall Street earlier this year, but the U.S. has continued to add jobs while inflation has declined, and the stock market has rebounded. "I think there is no landing … until you get to [a] hard landing. JPMorgan has a year-end price target of 4,200 for the S & P 500 , which is below average among major Wall Street firms.

Persons: Dubravko, Bujas, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Global stock market correction likely before year-end: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary poll dataReuters poll graphic on global stock market outlookBENGALURU, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Global stock markets are heading for a correction in coming months, though overall they should post marginal gains between now and the end of 2023, according to a majority of analysts polled by Reuters. A bad year for stocks in 2022 carried into this year as global central banks battled inflation with interest rate rises that are now largely drawing to an end. A 71% majority of analysts, 55 of 77, who answered an additional question in the Aug. 9-23 poll said a correction by year-end in their local equity market was either likely or very likely. A "fear of missing out" is said to have helped drive much of the equity market rallies of recent years. The year-end forecast in February's Reuters poll was 4,200.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Marko Kolanovic, Morgan, Terry Sandven, Europe's, Hari Kishan, Indradip Ghosh, Ross Finley, John Stonestreet Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Treasury, NIKKEI, February's Reuters, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Japan's Nikkei, IPC, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, BENGALURU, Jackson, February's, Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, London, Mexico City, Milan, New York, San Francisco, Sao Paulo, Tokyo, Toronto

☆ Consumers have spent all of their excess savings from the pandemic. That's just one reason why stocks are poised to fall, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US consumers have spent all of their excess savings from the pandemic, according to JPMorgan. The bank highlighted the softening of the consumer as one reason why stocks are poised to continue their decline. In a Thursday note, he said consumers have spent down the entirety of their excess savings from the pandemic, which at one point totaled more than $2 trillion. A softening consumer is just one reason why he is preaching continued caution towards the stock market amid its 5% decline, according to the note. Another headwind for the stock market is the fact that rich valuations make buybacks less attractive for companies when they're funded by debt, he added.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Germany

☆ JPMorgan's top stock guru says stay underweight equities, investors are too optimistic about economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan's top stock picker Marko Kolanovic says investors should stay underweight equities. But Kolanovic said investors are ignoring the risks that could still lead to a recession. These include the small chance that central banks in developed markets around the world would ease back on interest rates anytime soon. Given this, the strategist advised investors remain underweight equities, particularly in riskier growth stocks. "As such, we maintain an overall defensive stance in our model portfolio, and continue to be UW equities and credit vs. OW in cash and commodities," he said.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Moody's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Reserve, Regional Banking

☆ More firms on Wall Street are bracing for a stock sell-off. Here's why JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and others say the market's huge gains are at risk.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Some Wall Street analysts are sounding the alarm for a coming sell-off in stocks. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys its best year since 1927, gaining 18% from January. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys one of its best years since 1927, largely thanks to Wall Street's excitement for artificial intelligence. But he sees the overall S&P 500 ending the year at 4,600-4,800, above current levels.

Persons: Eduardo Munoz JPMorgan, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Shannon Stapleton Wells, Scott Wren, Wren, Brendan McDermid, Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, REUTERS, Reuters BlackRock, Rosenberg Research, Dow Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ 'People give up on recession just as it arrives': Don't count out an economic downturn just yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Despite solid economic data, some Wall Street strategists are sticking with their gloomy outlook for the economy and stocks. But don't count out a decline just yet: "People give up on recession just as it arrives." Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Société GénéraleEdwards isn't the only bear on Wall Street. And as Edwards highlighted, a decline in profits usually leads to an uptick in layoffs, which could ultimately hurl this economy into a recession.

Persons: Albert Edwards, Greedflation, Edwards, Société Générale Edwards, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Service, Survey, Loan, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

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